Traditional Hybrids are Spearheading the Consumer Exodus from ICEs

While motivation accelerates for an all-electric future from both inside and outside the automotive industry, new vehicle shoppers are more likely to purchase a traditional hybrid than a full battery-electric vehicle within the next three years, according to our 2022 Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS), which gauges consumer interest in more than 120 vehicle features and powertrain types. Automakers are quickly adding a flurry of EVs to their lineups to meet sweeping mandates and zero-emission goals, as well as growing demand, but range anxiety, lack of at-home or public charging infrastructure, and purchase cost remain a concern for many consumers.

Expectedly, demand for gasoline engines is the strongest at 52% of all new vehicle intenders in this year’s study, which also means that nearly half of all intenders plan to acquire something other than a gasoline powertrain. For electrified powertrains, demand is the strongest for traditional hybrid powertrains at 18%, while plug-in hybrid and EV powertrains each earn 11% intention among of all new vehicle intenders. Demand for diesel is scant at 5% while hydrogen fuel cell powertrains register just 3% demand.

Nearly 1/2 of new vehicle intenders plan to purchase a powertrain other than gasoline, with 18% intending a hybrid and 11% intending an EV or PHEV.

AutoPacific’s analysis suggests that the ease of purchasing and owning a traditional hybrid vehicle versus a more advanced EV is likely the primary reason behind their higher demand. Traditional hybrids eliminate many of the perceived “headaches” of owning an EV. There’s no added need for a consumer to invest in an at-home charging station, plan their driving route based on available public charging stations, or fear range anxiety. Furthermore, many of today’s hybrids promise combined average fuel economy approaching 60 mpg, while many hybrid mid-size SUVs can approach 40 mpg.

“Not everyone may be set up to own an EV yet and for many new shoppers, traditional hybrids are still the most accessible and affordable way to go green. Hybrids have impressively evolved over the decades. They’re now found powering a much more diverse mix of popular bodystyles including pickup trucks, SUVs, and crossovers.”

-Robby DeGraff, Industry Analyst

Price Plays a Large Role in Hybrid vs EV Demand

Sticker shock is another roadblock for EV intenders, but not for affluent consumers who may be better prepped to pivot away from ICE ownership. Data from this year’s FADS study reveal that among intenders of EVs, 48% plan to spend at least $50k on a new vehicle, compared to just 22% of traditional hybrid intenders. “The truth is, there are actually quite a few great lower-priced EVs below $50,000 on sale right now, and on the way soon from multiple automakers,” DeGraff said. “But many consumers may not be aware of them just yet.”

Shoppers not wishing to open their wallets wide in order to lower their carbon footprint can find reprieve via efficient traditional hybrids that are readily available at more approachable price points. As such, there’s more desirability for them and less financial burden. Data show that among intenders of traditional hybrids, 78% plan to spend below $50k on a new vehicle, compared to just 52% of EV intenders.

AutoPacific data reveal that 48% of EV intenders plan to spend at least $50k on a new vehicle, compared to just 22% of traditional hybrid intenders. Conversely, 78% of hybrid intenders plan to spend below $50k on a new vehicle, compared to just 52% of EV intenders.

While demand for EVs is on the rise and more affordably priced models are entering the scene, there are many longstanding issues that need to be addressed over time in order for demand to outpace that of ICE and traditional hybrids. Until then, hybrid vehicles will continue to serve as the key pathway for consumers to collectively move towards a zero-emissions future.

Latest Study Reveals Wireless Charging Pad, Dash Camera In Top 10 Wanted Features; EVs as Path to Autonomy

What features do new vehicle intenders want to have in their next vehicle? AutoPacific recently completed fielding the 2022 edition of its signature Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS), designed to help automakers and suppliers better understand consumer demand for more than 120 features and technologies. With insights from over 11,000 respondents who intend to purchase a new vehicle within the next three years, AutoPacific’s FADS not only identifies what features are wanted overall, but also identifies features desired at a segment, powertrain and demographic level, while also collecting psychographic and in-vehicle activity insights from all respondents.

The 2022 FADS reveals a strong top ten mix of features from every category, with wireless charging pad for front passengers landing at number one, followed by sunroof/moonroof, all-wheel drive/4x4, dash camera and front and rear parking sensors. “Having such a variety of features land in the top ten highlights the need for automakers to look at the big picture and understand that it’s not all about safety, or comfort, or infotainment, but providing a combination of features that meet the many needs of consumers,” says AutoPacific president and chief analyst Ed Kim.

Top 10 Features Desired by New Vehicle Intenders

Are Alternative Powertrain Vehicles the Path to Autonomous and Other Advanced Vehicle Technology Implementation?

Sales of alternative powertrain vehicles, such as hybrids, plug-in hybrids and full-electric vehicles, are forecast to increase, in some cases exponentially, over the next five years, according to AutoPacific’s 5-year sales forecast, providing automakers with many opportunities to implement the latest iterations of autonomous and advanced driver-assistance technologies. “Alternative powertrain intenders have historically been on the cutting edge of technology and are typically more open to, and demanding of, advanced technologies,” says Kim. “FADS data confirms this hypothesis and really reveals how electrified vehicles can truly reshape the vehicle and driving experience of the future.”

Features with the highest percentage point different in demand between gasoline and EV intenders

Among the features with the highest percent difference in demand when comparing gasoline intenders to EV intenders, are four autonomous driving features and three advanced driver-assistance features. In most cases, feature demand incrementally increases from gasoline to hybrid, PHEV, and then to EV intenders. Additionally, demand is greater from EV intenders for all but two surveyed features: heated front seats and sunroof/moonroof, which both fall about even with gasoline intender demand.

“With so much opportunity for feature implementation, it’s an exciting time to be a manufacturer of EVs.””

— Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst

Healthy SUV Growth Forecasted Despite High Fuel Prices

SUVs, large or small, are here to stay, despite rising fuel prices. AutoPacific recently asked over 300 current SUV owners how high fuel prices would affect their next vehicle purchase decision. The survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary panel of respondents, is designed to gauge consumer reactions to fuel prices over time. Findings reveal that current high, or higher, fuel prices would cause the majority of current SUV owners (45%) to consider a hybrid or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) SUV or Crossover, while 27% would consider an EV SUV or Crossover, and 29% would be unaffected. “Most new traditional gasoline SUVs get much better fuel economy now than they did when fuel prices spiked in 2008 and caused a shift in the market,” says AutoPacific President and Chief Analyst, Ed Kim. “Couple that with an influx of hybrid, PHEV and EV SUV offerings and consumers have so many choices that they don’t have to downsize or change vehicle types.”

Current SUV owners would prefer to consider an alternative powertrain SUV or crossover than downsize or change vehicle types.

Alternative Powertrain SUV Market Share Growing at a Higher Rate than Overall SUV Market Share

According to AutoPacific’s annual forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales, SUVs will continue to dominate the market, reaching over 60% market share in 2027. Additionally, AutoPacific’s most recently issued forecast shows SUVs will make up over half of alternative powertrain market share in 2023 and beyond, and alternative powertrain SUVs will account for over a quarter of the total market by the end of 2027. “While SUVs continue to take over the new vehicle marketplace, alternative powertrain SUVs will continue to make up more of those SUV sales,” says Kim. In 2021, alternative powertrain SUVs made up 16.4% of total SUVs sold in the U.S. By 2027, AutoPacific expects they will make up 42.6% of all SUVs sold, giving SUV shoppers many options from which to choose.

Alternative powertrain SUV share of the overall market is growing at a faster rate than overall SUV market share.

Latest AutoPacific Forecast Shows a Gloomy 2022, But Share of Higher Priced Segments Grows

Due to continuing supply chain issues that remain a major impediment to industry sales recovery, AutoPacific is expecting an underwhelming 2022 with total U.S. light vehicle volumes at about 15.5 million units. Consumers can expect continued low inventories at dealerships and dealer markups resulting in higher transaction prices, and rising interest rates will have further negative impact on their purchasing power. “As transaction prices rise, people who are acquiring new vehicles during this time are likely to be more affluent, so market share of higher priced segments, such as Luxury SUVs and Pickups, is forecast to grow this year even as supply remains constrained,” says Kim.

Survey Finds High Fuel Prices Won't Deter Summer Road Trips

AutoPacific recently investigated the road trip plans of drivers in the U.S., finding that nearly half of respondents (49%) plan to take a road trip/driving vacation within the next six months and another 16% are considering taking one.

Collected from 644 respondents in May of 2022, the findings are a part of AutoPacific’s bi-monthly Fuel Price Impact Survey, designed to gauge consumer reactions to fuel prices over time. “People are traveling again,” says AutoPacific president and chief analyst, Ed Kim. “As COVID restrictions continue to wind down throughout the U.S., consumers are ready to get out into the world again and road trips are a great way to ease back into it.”

Current High Fuel Prices Have Little Effect on Road Trip Intentions

At the time that the latest survey was in the field, the national average price at the pump for regular grade gas was $4.60 per gallon according to AAA (https://gasprices.aaa.com), and AutoPacific’s survey respondents reported paying a similar price of $4.58 per gallon. Of those who said they plan to take a road trip, when asked if recent fuel price increases changed their travel plans, only 2% of respondents said they will cancel their plans due to recent fuel price increases and 8% said they will delay their plans until prices decrease. Additionally, 9% said they will drive a shorter distance than originally planned and 7% said they will consider flying instead of driving.

Only 2% of survey respondents say they will cancel their road trip vacation plans due to recent fuel price increases.

What about an increase of $1.50 per gallon?

Despite their intention to travel, consumers are not only faced with current high fuel prices, but also the expectation that prices will continue to rise. “Due to a variety of factors, fuel prices are expected to continue rising over the summer, which is terrifying for many drivers who are looking forward to getting out and seeing the world again,” says Kim. Still, when asked how a fuel price increase of $1.50 or more per gallon than now would affect their willingness to take road trips/driving vacations, only 16% of respondents said they would not be willing to take road trips. “Consumers have a threshold, and many are already stretched to the limit with current gas prices, but the desire to travel outweighs the financial concerns for many,” says Kim.

16% of respondents say they would not be willing to take a road trip if fuel prices increase by $1.50 per gallon or more.

Consumers Look to Technology, not Downsizing, to Cure Fuel Price Woes, Attain Energy Independence

AutoPacific’s latest round of Fuel Price Impact Survey (FPIS) data comes amid alarmingly high fuel prices and continued conflict in Ukraine. The survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary panel of respondents, received responses from over 650 vehicle owners in the United States.

The data reveal that over half of consumers (52%) remain unwilling to change the type of vehicle they drive even with higher fuel prices. The 25% who say higher fuel prices would cause them to change the type of vehicle they drive say the price of fuel must be about $1.00 per gallon more than what they’re paying now, or a median price of $5.32 per gallon compared to the current median of $4.23 per gallon. “Historically, and during the long stretch of fairly consistent fuel prices, respondents have said it would take approximately $1.50 more per gallon to cause them to change their vehicle type,” says AutoPacific president and chief analyst Ed Kim. “Despite substantially higher fuel prices recently, the data tell us that consumers are generally unwilling to change the type and size of vehicle they drive.”

Over half of consumers (52%) remain unwilling to change the type of vehicle they drive even with higher fuel prices.

SUV Owners Would Choose Alternative Powertrains Over Downsizing

For those who currently own an SUV or crossover, nearly half (47%) say they would consider a hybrid or plug-in hybrid SUV while 30% would consider an all-electric SUV if fuel prices are as high or higher than now when they’re shopping for their next vehicle. Under those circumstances, only 18% of SUV or crossover owners would consider downsizing to a smaller SUV or crossover, while a scant 7% would consider getting out of their SUV or crossover and into a sedan or other type of passenger car. “Consumers are turning to technology rather than downsizing to solve the problem of rising fuel prices,” says Kim. Even as fuel prices are the highest seen in over a decade, SUV purchase intention continues to rise, with over half of respondents saying they would choose an SUV for their next vehicle and another 13% intending to choose a pickup.

Only 18% of current SUV or crossover owners would consider downsizing to a smaller SUV or crossover, while a scant 7% would consider getting out of their SUV or crossover and into a sedan or other type of passenger car.

The Conflict in Ukraine Plays a Role in Alternative Powertrain Interest

59% of respondents expect fuel prices to increase in the future, representing the majority of respondents. Of those who expect fuel prices to continue rising, 81% expect that to happen as a direct result of the conflict in Ukraine. “Consumers have far more options now than during previous fuel price spikes with the influx of hybrid, PHEV, and electric vehicles now available for sale and coming in the near future, and it seems that fuel price increases and cries for energy independence have given electrified powertrains a boost in consumer demand,” says Kim.

25% of survey respondents say factors directly related to the conflict in Ukraine make them more likely to consider an EV for their next vehicle. While “charging is cheaper than fueling” remains the top reason why EV intenders would choose an EV (85%), 63% of EV intenders would choose an EV because EVs contribute to energy independence for the U.S. and 52% of EV intenders say the conflicts around the world make them want to reduce their consumption of oil.

Consumers have more options now than during previous fuel price spikes with the influx of hybrid, PHEV, and electric vehicles. Fuel price increases and cries for energy independence have given electrified powertrains a boost in consumer demand

Consumers Pick Their Most-Trusted Brands for Developing Fully-Autonomous Vehicles

With the advent of fully-autonomous vehicles on the way, who will win the race first to develop the most trusted system? As part of AutoPacific’s recent study gauging consumer perception on fully-autonomous vehicle technology, we asked respondents about their trust in 56 brands, both automakers and popular technology companies alike. From Apple to Volvo, consumers across all age brackets picked who they would trust the most, and the least, when it comes to developing safe and reliable fully-autonomous vehicles.

Before diving into the top 10 most-trusted brands, let’s take a look at just how ready consumers are to embrace the technology. While automakers, legacy and startups, and even a few technology companies promise appealing, cutting-edge fully-autonomous vehicles… if the consumer isn’t entirely on board then the pace of adoption may stall the arrival of this technology.

Younger Generations Are More Welcoming to AVs

What age group is the most eager to embrace fully-autonomous vehicle technology? Expectedly, 22% of younger shoppers ages 30 to 39 want AVs as soon as possible followed by 14% of shoppers ages 18 to 29. The eagerness begins to drop as the age brackets climb, with just 3% of polled consumers ages 60 and up wanting it ASAP. However, the common theme displayed across all polled age brackets is that the majority of consumers would prefer to wait until there is a proven track record of safe and/or reliable fully-autonomous vehicle technology. The most reluctant to ever have a taste for fully-autonomous vehicle technology? Drivers aged 60 and up.

While it appears most consumers, regardless of age bracket, are more comfortable waiting a bit longer for fully-autonomous vehicles, that doesn’t mean that automakers and technology companies should delay getting the ball rolling.

At this time, there are no fully-autonomous or “self-driving” vehicles on sale today. However, some automakers including GM, Ford, Tesla, and Toyota do currently offer more comprehensive ADAS suites that do legally allow for Level 2 semi-autonomous hands-free driving on marked highways in ideal, safe conditions (as required by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration or NHTSA, a driver’s eyes and attention must be kept on the road when these hands-free systems are activated and in use).

Consumers trust the following brands the most to develop safe, reliable fully-autonomous vehicles: Tesla, Toyota, BMW, Chevrolet, Ford, Apple, Honda, Audi, Subaru, and Cadillac.

Consumer Trust Sits Highest With Tesla, Toyota, and BMW

With 32% of consumers, Tesla claims the crown for being the most trusted brand for developing safe and reliable fully-autonomous vehicles. This likely can be credited to much more “buzz” surrounding the automaker’s pricey and controversial Full-Self Driving driver assistance tech in which current Tesla owners are able to sign up as volunteers and help demo the Level 2 semi-autonomous hands-free capability for Tesla’s own R&D efforts. Second place is Toyota, with 19% of consumers picking the brand as their most trusted; the brand in early March started rolling out its first Level 2 semi-autonomous hands-free driving aid for the hydrogen-powered Mirai’s 2022 model year. Perhaps not surprisingly, the younger the consumer, the more who trust Tesla while the older the consumer, the higher the trust swings for Toyota.

18% of consumers picked BMW, 16% Chevrolet, and 14% picked Ford - with the latter two automakers currently offering Level 2 semi-autonomous hands-free highway assists on various models in their respective lineups. However, in a similar case with Tesla, younger consumers are substantially more likely to trust BMW (42% of consumers ages 18 to 39) compared to those who trust in Chevrolet and Ford (just 25% and 16%) respectively.

Interestingly, despite not having a vehicle of its own on sale (yet), 13% of consumers trust Apple to develop safe and reliable fully-autonomous vehicles. While it didn’t earn a spot in the top ten list above, 5% of consumers did pick Sony as a most-trusted brand.

Honda, Audi, Subaru, and Cadillac make up the remaining four of the top ten most trusted automakers to develop safe and reliable fully-autonomous vehicles. Cadillac is the only automaker in this group four to currently offer a Level 2 semi-autonomous hands-free highway driving aid, Super Cruise, which is available on select CT6, CT4, CT5, Escalade, and XT6 models, as well as soon the all-electric LYRIQ crossover due for our 2023 model year.

Consumers Aren't Comfortable with Fully Autonomous Vehicle Technology; Want Proven Track Record

Fully autonomous vehicles are coming, but are drivers ready and willing to hand over the controls? In a recent study of over 600 licensed drivers aged 18-80 in the United States, AutoPacific gauged comfort with autonomous vehicles and investigated such topics as insurance responsibility, accident liability, price willing to pay and trusted automotive brands.

Rating their current comfort level, only 29% of respondents said they would be comfortable being automatically driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle in the future. A slightly lower 26% of respondents would be comfortable as passengers riding in someone else’s fully autonomous vehicle. “This is technology that most consumers are going to need to see and experience for several years before becoming comfortable,” says Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst of AutoPacific. “It’s different than any other automotive technology that’s currently out there in that you’d be truly putting your vehicle in control of the drive one hundred percent.” Study results show that the large majority of respondents will wait until there’s a proven track record of reliability before embracing the technology.

Rating their current comfort level, only 29% of respondents said they would be comfortable being automatically driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle in the future. A slightly lower 26% of respondents would be comfortable as passengers riding in someone else’s fully-autonomous vehicle in the future.

Younger Drivers Are Most Comfortable with Autonomy

Age will play a major role in the future acceptance and adoption of autonomous vehicles as younger consumers are currently more comfortable with the technology. When asked about their comfort level being driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle, 40% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable, while only 18% of drivers 60 and older say the same. Furthermore, 47% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable with a fully autonomous vehicle taking its own evasive actions in emergency situations, compared to only 29% of slightly older respondents (age 30-39) and 20% of the oldest age group (age 60+). When asked if they believe there will be more or fewer accidents when fully autonomous vehicles are on the road, only 24% of respondents overall believe there will be fewer, compared to 41% of respondents aged 18-29.

When asked about their comfort level being driven in their own fully autonomous vehicle, 40% of respondents aged 18-29 say they would be comfortable, while only 18% of drivers 60 and older say the same.

Tesla, BMW and Toyota Most Trusted Brands for Autonomous Vehicle Development

Nearly a third of all respondents (32%) say they trust Tesla to develop a safe and reliable fully autonomous vehicle, followed by Toyota (19%) and BMW (18%). “Tesla’s reputation as a technology leader and the fact that its vehicles currently offer some degree of autonomous technologies, whether they reliably work or not, gives them the competitive edge with consumers when it comes to future full autonomy,” says Kim. Toyota’s strong brand reputation with older consumers and its reputation for robustness and reliability likely help it place in the top 3 overall, though respondents aged 18-29 are less likely to name the brand as a contender in autonomous development and more likely to choose Apple (20%), even though the technology giant doesn’t currently sell vehicles.

U.S. EV Sales Forecasted to Reach Around 700,000 Amidst Increasing Consumer Demand

AutoPacific just issued its forecast of fully electric light vehicle sales in the U.S. of around 700,000 units in 2022 with strong annual increases throughout the 6-year forecast period. Our forecast comes as consumer demand for EVs is also at its highest yet, having spiked significantly in the past two years.

We’ve recently asked vehicle owners what powertrain they intend to purchase when replacing their current vehicle. The question is part of a series of questions asked in our latest AutoPacific’s Fuel Price Impact Study (FPIS), a bi-monthly study of over 500 vehicle owners in the U.S. While hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and electric (EV) vehicles have all been trending upward, it is EV intention that has increased the most in recent years. “The market is seeing exponential growth in the number of EV nameplates available to consumers, making EVs more visible to vehicle shoppers and in turn increasing their consideration for them,” says AutoPacific President and Chief Analyst Ed Kim. “Growth in EV demand is a combination of several factors including increased awareness of EVs, increased variety of vehicle brands and nameplates, types and price ranges available, improved charging infrastructure, increased range, and environmental-friendliness,” continues Kim.

Consumer intent to purchase an EV jumped from 4% to 9% in 2020, reaching 11% in January 2022.

New Product Plays a Greater Role in Growing EV Demand Than Fuel Prices

From 2010 through 2014, when the average fuel price paid was highest since we began tracking it, consumer demand for EV powertrains was stuck between 2% to 4% - more a function of a lack of product availability and consumer awareness than high fuel prices. As Tesla started introducing additional models in the mid-2010s, consumer demand increased slightly, yet remained stagnant throughout the decade. It wasn’t until 2020 that consumers began to show significantly greater intent for purchasing an EV, perfectly aligned with the growth in nameplate count starting with Tesla’s Model Y (now the top selling EV) and quickly followed by new entries like the Ford Mustang Mach-E and the Volkswagen ID.4.

In fact, steadily rising fuel prices since early last year seem to have impacted demand less than the influx of new product, as evidenced by periodic drops in demand despite rising fuel prices. Over the same time period, demand for hybrids remains higher than that of EVs, as they enable much better fuel economy than gasoline-only powertrains while allowing owners to fill up at the gas pump as they always have.

“Still, we can’t deny that fuel prices play a role in EV demand,” explains Kim. “In fact, 83% of EV intenders say they would choose an EV because “charging is cheaper than fueling.”

AutoPacific forecasts U.S. EV sales of 670,000 in 2022 as consumer demand reaches 11%. EV sales are expected to reach 2.5 million units by the end of 2027.

75% of Consumers See EVs as the “Way of the Future”, But the Road to the Future Will be a Challenging One

Since March of 2021, when AutoPacific began asking EV intenders why they would choose an EV, the top three reasons have consistently been “charging is cheaper than fueling,” “an EV is better for the environment,” and “EVs are the way of the future.” Consumers also like the convenience of charging and the quietness of an EV. “EVs are establishing their place in the market by providing consumers with more than just efficiency compared to traditional internal combustion vehicles,” says Kim.

While EV demand is growing, there remains much work to be done as about 89% of AutoPacific’s respondents still indicate they intend to buy something other than an EV for their next vehicle. Conquesting consumers out of gasoline, diesel, and hybrid vehicles – none of which require changes in daily routine to accommodate charging – will continue to be an uphill challenge for years to come.

Consumers Expect Fuel Prices to Increase, but Won't Change the Type of Vehicle They Plan to Purchase

Today’s rising fuel prices won’t change the type of vehicle most consumers plan to purchase. Automotive consulting firm AutoPacific has been studying the impact of fuel prices on consumer vehicle purchase behavior bi-monthly since 2005.

In our most recent January 2022 Fuel Price Impact Study, 65% of respondents said they expect fuel prices to increase in the near future, yet only 23% of respondents said higher fuel prices would cause them to change the type of vehicle they would purchase if purchasing today. This is up from 15% in August 2020, when fuel prices were lower than today, yet down from a high of 33% in 2012. “Technology has enabled the fuel economy of vehicles of all types to improve enough over the past decade that consumers are no longer forced from SUVs to passenger cars because of high fuel prices as they were in 2008, or even 2012,” says AutoPacific President and Chief Analyst Ed Kim.

Despite expectations of rising fuel prices, the majority of vehicle owners won't let it change the type of vehicle they plan to purchase in the future.

Owning an SUV or Truck is No Longer a Major Penalty When it Comes to the Fuel Pump

In March 2012, average fuel prices reported by panel members in the U.S. were the highest seen in the last decade, averaging $3.87 per gallon. At that time, 33% of respondents said they would change the type of vehicle they would purchase due to higher fuel prices. Also at that time, the mix of new car and light truck purchases was about 50/50 and light truck fuel economy was lower than today, forcing many vehicle owners into smaller or more fuel-efficient vehicles such as mid-size or compact sedans.

Jump 10 years to 2022 and the mix of new car and light truck purchases is heavily weighted to light trucks, accounting for approximately 77% of the market. Despite the much higher light truck mix, vehicle owners reported getting an average of 24 mpg whether in 2012, when light trucks represented just 50% of the market, or today. This gives consumers little incentive to abandon light trucks such as SUVs and pickups for passenger cars. “Thanks to impressive improvements in efficiency, today’s consumers enjoy a similar level of fuel economy as they did ten years ago even though they are much more likely to be driving light truck products today,” says Kim. “This is a major factor behind why SUVs are here to stay; they simply don’t require a big sacrifice at the pump in the way that they used to.”

Although fuel prices have comparatively little impact on vehicle type chosen, fuel economy is still important. 49% of respondents in January 2022 agreed with the statement, “the better the fuel economy, the more likely I am to buy a specific vehicle.”

Consumers Can Still be Swayed by Fuel Economy When Shopping for a Vehicle

Although fuel prices have comparatively little impact on vehicle type chosen, fuel economy is still important. 49% of respondents in January 2022 agreed with the statement, “the better the fuel economy, the more likely I am to buy a specific vehicle.” While fuel economy may drive consumers in a specific vehicle type or powertrain direction, once the considerations have been narrowed, consumers are unlikely to be swayed from one vehicle to another by fuel economy. 58% of respondents say it takes an improvement of 5 or more miles per gallon to prefer one comparable vehicle over another.

Light Vehicle Sales Predicted to Increase to 16.2 Million Units in 2022

Automotive consulting firm AutoPacific’s recently released forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales predicts 2022 will reach a total of 16.2 million vehicles sold. This is up from the 15.1 million units actually sold in 2021 during the second year of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that continues to cause havoc on the global supply chain and results in drastically short supplies of new vehicles available to consumers

Moving forward into a new year, AutoPacific expects over a 1 million unit increase over 2021, as chip supply gradually returns and new vehicle inventory starts to fill up again, especially during the second half of 2022. “Consumers have money to spend on new vehicles,” says Ed Kim, AutoPacific President and Chief Analyst, “but with such low supply last year and the start of this year, there is pent-up demand.”

2023 will see a return to 17+ million unit volumes, followed by a mild cooling off period over the next couple of years as pent-up demand gets filled, though volumes are expected to stay above 17 million units.

Times are Changing as Consumer Demand for Certain Vehicle Features Shifts

Four New Features Ascend into the 2021 Top 10

AutoPacific’s latest Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS) has indicated a sharp growing interest in certain vehicle features while others have fallen on the wayside. This year, 88,998 new vehicle acquires were surveyed via AutoPacific’s 2021 New Vehicle Satisfaction Survey (NVSS) to determine what features today are hot, and which ones are not.

2020 was a turbulent year for many consumers, a time shaken by the onset of a global pandemic and its still-lingering side effects. The auto industry itself wasn’t immune to the chaos. Health concerns rose while consumer confidence plummeted as lockdowns began. Dealerships saw drastically fewer (if any) foot traffic and vehicle assembly plants went dark. But people were still buying and selling cars albeit at far less of a rate than in 2019 and through different mediums this time around like Carvana, Vroom, along with local dealerships and automakers trying various at-home services like contactless test drives.

Amidst this shift in consumer behavior, priorities, and preferences, we’ve seen four features in our 2021 FADS climb their way into the top ten list from out of the lower ranks including front and rear parking sensors, Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, ventilated/cooled front seats, and LED front exterior accent lighting.

In looking over the list of the top ten most demanded features, heated front seats remains the number one item on consumer wish lists with 66% wanting this on their next new vehicle followed by blind-spot information system (commonly referred to as blind spot monitoring) at number 2 with 60% demand.

Notably, of all ten driver assistance features or ADAS surveyed in the 2021 FADS, demand is the highest for blind-spot information systems, followed by lane departure warning at number five. Consumer demand for other key ADAS systems is noticeably lower like active lane keeping assist (45%), forward automatic emergency braking (41%), and rear cross-traffic alert (38%). This difference may be attributed to the lack of consumer awareness of the benefits of these systems. For example, systems like blind spot monitoring and lane departure warning are often activated much more frequently than systems like forward automatic emergency braking. “When consumers hear about a vehicle’s ability to stop itself automatically, they are often wary.  When they experience it saving them from committing a driving error, they clearly see the benefit,” says Dan Hall, Vice President of AutoPacific. As automakers continue to roll out many of these ADAS systems as standard-issue on their products or bundle them together in further options packages, and more consumers learn how crucial these pieces of life-saving tech are, AutoPacific predicts demand will rise.

LED front exterior accent lighting skyrocketed to the number eight most demanded feature for 2021

Two of the hottest features most in demand by new vehicle shoppers this year include Apple CarPlay/Android Auto and LED front exterior accent lighting. The latter jumped 26 spots to the number eight on our top ten list for 2021, likely a result of more and more mainstream vehicles bypassing traditional, simple headlamps and front fascias for more intricate, flashy LED accents adorning the headlights, grille, and even by way of illuminated front emblems like Mercedes-Benz’s glowing star. “Once the mark of luxury brands only, LED exterior lighting is enhancing the designs of vheiles in every segment and price point.  In addition to being a design enhancement, LEDs help visibility and have a long life,” says Hall.

Another feature we expect to continue to grow in demand like wildfire, is Apple CarPlay/Android Auto. This popular infotainment feature is found on nearly every new vehicle on sale today, oftentimes as standard-issue, and serves as a great way for drivers and passengers to link their smartphone to the vehicle’s infotainment system to project things like navigation, messages, and music or podcast streaming. Younger shoppers including millennials and tech-savvy Gen X individuals will only fuel the surge in demand as more and more consumers realize the future is in tethering a smartphone directly to the vehicle.

Survey respondents are individuals who purchased their new vehicle outright, financed it, or leased it and who have completed the survey section regarding their next vehicle. The FADS study closely analyzes the characteristics consumers prefer in their next vehicle and gauges demand for over 100 specific features.

EV Intention is on the Rise, but What’s Driving It?

9% of current vehicle owners intend to buy an ev

According to data from AutoPacific’s latest Fuel Price Impact Survey (FPIS), 9% of current vehicle owners intend to purchase an EV for their next vehicle, up from 4% just two years ago. The trend survey, issued bi-monthly to AutoPacific’s proprietary VehicleVoice member panel, captures responses from approximately 600 current vehicle owners each survey period.

After hovering around 4-5% for years, the jump in EV intention can likely be attributed to several factors, including more nameplates in the market, financial and driving incentives, environmental concerns, and desire for technology. When asked why they would choose an EV, 85% of respondents agreed with the statement an EV “is better for the environment,” while 80% agreed that EVs are “the way of the future.” “It’s exciting to see consumers embrace the future potential for EVs and their place in the world of transportation,” says Deborah Grieb, AutoPacific market research manager. “With over 120 EV nameplates expected to be on sale in the U.S. in the next 5 years, growing consumer interest is essential.” Can consumer demand grow enough to support 120 EVs?  

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey April 2021

Fuel Prices Have Little to No Impact on EV Intention

AutoPacific data debunks one past theory surrounding interest - fuel prices. “When fuel prices were at their highest, EVs were relatively unknown in the market and not a solution for escaping those high prices,” says Grieb. Now that fuel prices have been stable for several years and manufacturers have made significant improvements in fuel economy, consumer choice of an EV can be based on reasons other than desire to save money on gasoline.  According to FPIS data, increases in EV intention are seemingly unrelated to fuel prices, even with recent fuel price increases and future price expectations. 

Source: AutoPacific Fuel Price Impact Survey Sept 2010-April 2021