According to AutoPacific’s latest U.S. Sales Forecast, sales of EVs will reach 1.4 million units by the end of 2024, accounting for 9.1% of total light vehicle sales. Yet the real growth happens between 2026 and 2029 when EV sales are forecast to grow from 2.5 million units, 15% of total sales, to 4.1 million units, 25% of total sales.
As recent news reports have brought to the public eye, many automakers are partaking in a revenue-generating practice that’s escalating concerns about privacy: the monitoring and sharing of one’s driving behavior with their customers’ insurance companies, in some cases without the customer opting in. But what if this practice could be executed to benefit, not penalize the consumer? AutoPacific’s Future Attribute Demand Study found that 19% of consumers who plan to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years are interested in having a feature that shares driving behavior data with their insurance company to lower their premiums.
With automakers prioritizing connectivity and exploring new ways to generate revenue after the point of sale, consumers are becoming more interested in the ability to purchase items or services directly from a vehicle’s center infotainment screen. This feature isn’t necessarily “new.” Over the past decade, automakers have tried testing the waters with in-vehicle marketplaces but to the reception of little actual interest among consumers. However, recent breakthroughs in screen sizes and intuitive software with over-the-air updates, and a booming e-commerce scene have prompted automakers to give this feature another go. AutoPacific research has seen demand for the ability to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen grow by 8% pts YoY. We predict that figure to continue to rise.
18% of all new vehicle intenders, and 29% of EV intenders want to use their touchscreen for transactions
When surveying new vehicle intenders, 18% of those who plan to buy a new vehicle within the next three years want the ability to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen. Past research has shown younger consumers are generally more comfortable and open to connected technology in their vehicles, as well as electrification. That’s expectedly the case here, with demand peaking among those ages 30-49 before dropping sharply.
Befitting, intenders of EVs who likely anticipate spending time waiting for their vehicle to charge, want this feature the most and considerably more so than ICE intenders (+16% pts). Automakers with EVs in their lineup could benefit by providing consumers in-vehicle marketplace capabilities, since these EV intenders frequently use a vehicle’s center infotainment screen for certain activities while parked, including streaming video content, playing games, partaking in video conferencing, and browsing the internet.
Regardless of powertrain or segment, this feature could become a must-have among families, as demand was more than twice that of households without any children. From placing food orders while waiting in the school pickup line to purchasing heated rear seats while on a winter road trip, obtaining products and services conveniently through the center infotainment screen can be a reprieve for busy parents. Relevant products, services, and upgrades catered specifically to families’ needs should be readily available via an in-vehicle marketplace.
Enhancing the vehicle and ownership experience over time
Beyond common goods and services, certain features and technologies that weren’t initially offered or added to a vehicle at time of purchase can be downloaded later through an in-vehicle marketplace. These can include ADAS features, comfort amenities, and even performance-focused treats like quicker acceleration and extra range for EVs. “This opens the door for manufacturers to let an owner easily enhance and better their vehicle over time,” says Robby DeGraff, Manager of Product and Consumer Insights at AutoPacific. “Maybe you didn’t think you’d need a hands-free highway driving assist when you first drove your vehicle off the lot…but now you suddenly do because you’re road-tripping a lot. A few minutes and taps on the center touchscreen, and you’ve just upgraded your vehicle without ever stepping foot in a dealership.”
Concerns and considerations to ensure seamless transactions
Earlier attempts at in-vehicle marketplaces were flawed by complicated on-screen steps, lagging connections and syncing of an owner’s payment methods, as well as a relatively small number of participating vendors. In order to ensure best practice for a consumer to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen, the process must be as quick, easy, and straightforward as it would be to do so using a mobile device. Any interruption, glitches, or difficulty during an on-screen transaction would likely see the consumer immediately resorting to completing the transaction on their smartphone.
Furthermore, privacy may be a real concern for some consumers, even those open to having connected technology in their vehicle. 66% of all respondents, and 70% of those who want the ability to securely purchase products, technologies and upgrades from their vehicle’s center infotainment screen say they are concerned about their privacy due to use of various technologies. Transparency, a way to opt out of a transaction if desired, and of course security for all stored payment methods need to be guaranteed by the automaker.
According to data from AutoPacific’s recent EV Consumer Insights Study, future EV consumers have a long list of charging station attributes that are important to them. From easy to see and read charging speed and pricing signage to offering additional basic vehicle care services like windshield cleaner, air pumps for filling tires, and vacuums, future EV consumers would like a public charging experience that more closely mirrors traditional gasoline fueling stations.
AutoPacific’s recent trip to CES 2024, perhaps the largest and most significant showcase for breakthrough technologies in the world, shed light on the future for several features included in the market research and consulting firm’s annual Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS). AutoPacific’s annual survey of over 11,700 new vehicle intenders measures demand for 138 vehicle features and technologies, many of which are soon-to-be, or very newly available on select vehicles sold in the U.S.
Electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t just for homeowners with convenient garage charging capability. Interest in acquiring an EV in the future is even greater from those living in multi-unit housing than those who own their own detached single-family home. According to data from AutoPacific, 70% of surveyed respondents who currently reside in a condo complex, and 67% of those who live in an apartment building, either intend to purchase, or will consider purchasing an EV in the near future, compared to 63% of those who own a single-family home.
While America’s roads may be clogged with gas- and diesel-powered pickup trucks, an impeding tidal wave of electric products is about to flood into the market. However, consumer demand for electric pickup trucks (EV pickups) is among the lowest compared to other intended segments. Just 12% of future mid-size and 8% of future full-size pickup truck intenders plan to take the plunge into going all-electric. Yet despite lower demand for electric than other segments, EV pickups look to have the most adventurous and feature-demanding buyers, giving automakers the opportunity to introduce many new features and technologies.
An extension of AutoPacific’s renowned Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS), the EV Consumer Insights Study is comprised of licensed drivers aged 18 and older who reside in the United States and plan to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years. Their EV ownership, acceptance and rejection are gathered from a series of questions regarding their current vehicle and future purchase plans. “We’re excited about this study because it really digs into EV acceptance and rejection, yet also provides extremely useful insights that can help to build the reliable and enjoyable public charging infrastructure necessary for the future of EVs,” explains AutoPacific director of marketing and consumer insights Deborah Grieb.
42% of future EV considerers and intenders have concerns about finding safe and reliable charging on-the-go.
42% of future EV considerers and intenders have concerns about finding safe and reliable charging on-the-go.
Confidence in Public EV Charging Station Reliability and Safety Required
The study reveals that over 42% of consumers who plan to acquire, or will consider acquiring, an EV in the near future have concerns about finding reliable and safe charging on-the-go. Additionally, 41% of EV rejectors, those who will not consider acquiring an EV in the near future, say a lack of public charging infrastructure in their area is a reason for not considering going electric, ranking 3rd in rejection reasons behind the high cost of battery repair or replacement (49%) and concern about losing charge and being stranded (48%). Current EV owners, who are likely familiar with public charging station needs, mimic the concerns though at a lesser rate than non-owners with 30% naming finding reliable and safe on-the-go charging as concerns for EV ownership. “We’ve long said that the deployment of widespread and reliable public EV charging is at least as important as the EV products themselves and the data from our new EV Consumer Insights Study conclusively demonstrate this,” says AutoPacific's president and chief analyst, Ed Kim. “EVs have so many potential advantages, but ultimately they are irrelevant to consumers if they don’t have a way to quickly, safely, and reliably charge them while on the go.”
DC Fast Chargers Necessary for Widespread EV Implementation
According to the Department of Energy, there were close to 30,000 public DC fast charging stations in the United States at the beginning of 2023, and many more will be available in the next few years. However, AutoPacific notes that with the bulk of these chargers being in EV-friendly states like California, many parts of the U.S. are and will remain charging “deserts” for years to come, hampering EV adoption in those areas as well as discouraging long-distance travel in EVs. When asked about their concerns regarding EV ownership, 48% of future EV considerers and intenders and 36% of rejectors say they're concerned about charging times. “Couple concerns over finding a charging station with concerns over charging time and it's obvious that aggressive nationwide deployment of DC fast chargers is going to be instrumental in growing and maintaining EV ownership,” says Grieb.
Nearly 1/2 of future EV considerers and intenders, and 26% of owners are concerned about the amount of time it takes to charge an EV
Nearly 1/2 of future EV considerers and intenders, and 26% of owners are concerned about the amount of time it takes to charge an EV
It should be noted that the median time expected to charge a nearly empty battery to 80% using a DC fast charger is similar across the studied subgroups: 32 minutes from experienced owners and EV rejectors and 35 minutes from future considerers and intenders.
It remains to be seen if the auto industry’s recent moves to improve the state of public charging, most notably the adoption of the North American Charging Standard, as well as the newly formed automotive OEM consortium to promote more DC fast charger deployment, will sufficiently appease consumers’ concerns.
A multitude of features and technologies exist, or will soon exist, to assist drivers at various levels of intervention. With new vehicle penetration levels increasing, are consumers finally embracing these advanced safety systems and which ones are most appealing?
71% of new vehicle intenders say their next new vehicle should “have technology that prevents careless mistakes,” according to AutoPacific’s latest Future Attribute Demand Study. The study includes responses from over 11,000 licensed drivers in the U.S. who plan to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years. Does this mean they’re ready for autonomy? Not quite. While nearly half of these respondents want Unresponsive Driver Stop Assist, a feature classified as autonomous in the study, other autonomous driving features aren’t quite as welcomed, with full autonomy with option to drive desired by 30%. Mistake-avoiding technology seekers are more likely to be interested in technologies they perceive to improve safety and visibility.
Advanced Safety Technology Placement
While gender doesn’t play a differentiating role in who and where to target for placement of these technologies, age and lifestage apply, with technology seekers more likely to be Gen Y (+14%pts) with 1 or 2 children in the household (+10%pts). Additionally, these consumers are more likely to intend a luxury brand vehicle and have a stronger interest in alternative powertrains, from hybrid to electric. AutoPacific notes that the trend has been, and will likely continue to be, that tech seekers also want alternative powertrain vehicles, making them ideal candidates for introducing new “mistake avoiding” technologies.
AutoPacific Insights: Using AutoPacific’s syndicated data for real-world applications
Contact: Deborah Grieb, deborah.grieb@autopacific.com
Results of AutoPacific’s recently released Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS) show comfort and convenience features at the top of new vehicle shoppers’ wish lists. The annual study contains responses from over 11,700 licensed drivers in the U.S. who intend to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years. Respondents were asked a range of questions from what brands they will consider for their next new vehicle to what type of vehicle and powertrain type they intend to acquire, but most importantly, what features they want to have in that vehicle. AutoPacific’s 2023 FADS measures demand for 145 features ranging from autonomous driving to infotainment technologies to seating, including features specific to certain segments and powertrains.
The most wanted feature for 2023? LED fog lights. New to the survey this year, LED fog lights are desired by nearly half of all respondents (48%). In recent years, not only have fog lamps become common even on mid-grade versions of mainstream vehicles, but they have also largely made the transition to LED as they last much longer and emit brighter white light for improved visibility in adverse conditions.
Consumers Want the Convenience of In-Vehicle Wireless Charging
Wireless charging pads for portable electronic devices take two of the top 10 spots this year, 2nd and 5th, as 48% of new vehicle intenders want a wireless charging pad for front passengers and 40% would like one for rear passengers. “Cutting the cord has been a common theme in households for years and vehicles are following suit” says AutoPacific Market Research Manager Deborah Grieb. “From wireless Apple CarPlay to wireless device charging, providing consumers with a clean and convenient vehicle interior by ditching the cords has mass appeal.”
Source: AutoPacific 2023 Future Attribute Demand Study
An Autonomous Driving Feature Finally Finds A Big Audience
Also new to the survey this year is “unresponsive driver stop assist,” an autonomous driving feature that can automatically move the vehicle to the side of the road and come to a complete stop if the vehicle senses that the driver has become incapacitated. This feature is crucially important should a driver have a medical emergency, like a stroke, seizure, or lose consciousness. AutoPacific expects this feature to become more common in the coming years, especially as hands-free semi-autonomous drive features become more widely available.
“While autonomous driving features typically appeal more to males than females and younger consumers over older consumers, this new safety-focused autonomous feature does the opposite with slightly higher demand from females and greatest interest from those over age 60 (47%) and may help provide greater consumer acceptance and comfort with autonomous vehicle technology,” says Grieb.
About AutoPacific
AutoPacific is a future-oriented automotive marketing research and product consulting firm providing clients with industry intelligence, sales forecasting. The firm, founded in 1986, also conducts extensive proprietary and syndicated research and consulting for auto manufacturers, distributors, marketers, and suppliers worldwide, including its highly recognized Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS). The company is headquartered in Long Beach, California with affiliate offices in Michigan, Wisconsin, and the Carolinas. Additional information can be found at http://www.autopacific.com.
Ed Kim
AutoPacific
+1 714-838-4234
ed.kim@autopacific.com
How much do consumer views and attitudes dictate the type, brand and features for their next new vehicle? AutoPacific’s extensive battery of psychographic statements provide clients the ability to dig deeper into consumers to develop consumer profiles and feature packages based off those profiles, as well as target marketing strategies. AutoPacific looked at two opposing views related to vehicles and driving: those who say their vehicle should express their personality/style/ individuality and those who consider a vehicle to be a means of transportation rather than a source of pleasure. Using top responses from a 4-point scale of applicability (4 = applies perfectly), findings reveal a strong impact on feature demand but minimal differences in vehicle type and powertrain preferences.
“Lifestage plays a major role in vehicle purchase decisions, despite a consumer’s views and opinions about vehicles and driving,” explains AutoPacific market research manager Deborah Grieb. “Income, children and daily driving responsibilities often force a consumer into one vehicle over another despite what their heart may be telling them, leading to personalization through features,” continues Grieb.
For example, 8% of respondents who want an expressive vehicle say they’ll purchase a 2-row midsize SUV or crossover, but that number increases to 11% when looking at respondents without children and decreases to 4% for this with 3 or more children. Conversely, only 4% of respondents without children plan to purchase a 3-row large SUV or crossover, compared to 12% of respondents with 3 or more children.
How do Automakers Appeal to Different Personalities and Attitudes? Through Features & Technology
In this case, 51 of the 121 features surveyed have higher demand from respondents who want to express their personality/style/individuality with their vehicle, compared to those whose vehicle is simply a means of transportation. Personalization features such as illuminated brand logo, interior ambient lighting with selectable colors and LED accent lighting with welcome and goodbye animation are the most likely to be desired by personality seekers. Following close behind are upscale features that enhance the vehicle interior experience, such as branded premium audio, leather seats and heated and ventilated/cooled front seats. “The ways to express yourself through your vehicle are exponential. From outward expression with lighting and color to interior expression through seating, sound (both interior and exterior), and technology,” says Grieb.
Results of a recent online survey we issued indicate range and charge time issues are mostly to blame for deterring potential future electrified vehicle (EV) buyers. The study was issued to AutoPacific's proprietary panel of respondents who are licensed drivers ages 18 and older and reside in the U.S. Of the 827 survey respondents, 50% say they would consider an EV in the near future and 50% say they will not.
As a pre-cursor to our comprehensive EV Rejector Study planned for release later in 2023, this smaller panel survey serves to test some initial hypotheses while the larger future study is designed. “It’s not a secret that those who refuse to purchase an EV are concerned about range and charging, but we now know more specifics about these deterring elements, like distance to charging station, availability of charging at work, dwelling style, etc.” says President and Chief Analyst Ed Kim. According to consumer responses, the top reason cited for not considering an EV in the future is “I would be worried about losing charge and being stranded,” followed by “I think the charge required to wait for an EV to charge is too long.”
Misperceptions and/or Lack of Charging Locations Deter Potential Buyers
Of respondents who will not consider an EV, 45% believe their home would require extensive and expensive upgrades in order to successfully charge an EV, compared to only 14% of EV acceptors. Additionally, only 6% of rejectors say either their employer offers a place to plug in or a public charging station is within close walking distance, compared to 30% of EV acceptors.
“At this point, consumers who can adopt an EV lifestyle most easily are the ones who are going to become EV owners,” says Kim. “While there is a certain level of misunderstanding about at home chargers, and there’s certainly a lack of public charging infrastructure, it will take a combination of education and availability to grow the EV acceptor population,” continues Kim.
Electrified Vehicles Priced Under $35,000 Could Persuade Some Initial Rejectors
EV cost is also a deterrent, as 41% of respondents cited “buying and/or operating an EV is too expensive” as a reason for rejection. However, a combined 35% of those respondents say they would change their mind if an EV was priced below $35,000. Kim says, “Given the more affordably priced EV entries on the horizon, it’s nice to know there’s not only an existing market for a cheaper EV among EV acceptors, but that a lower price point could sway some initial rejectors to enter the market.”
This finding highlights the importance of getting more affordable EVs into the marketplace as they will be crucially important in achieving federal and state level goals for mass EV adoption. If mainstream middle-class consumers can’t afford them, EVs cannot become truly mainstream vehicles.
Subscription services are creeping into today’s vehicles. AutoPacific investigates consumer demand for these features and the most ideal segment placement.
AutoPacific's annual forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales predicts 14.8 million units sold in 2023, increasing to 16.7 million units in 2026.
AutoPacific recently released its forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales, predicting 2023 will reach a year-end total of 14.8 million units sold. Up from a disappointing 13.8 million units sold in 2022, the 1-million-unit increase can be attributed to a few factors, including continued supply chain recovery, and electric vehicle (EV) growth. “Supply chain issues are continuing,” explains AutoPacific President and Chief Analyst Ed Kim, “but at the same time they are easing as well, presenting the main driver for increased sales in 2023.” AutoPacific predicts 5-year peak growth is reached in 2026 as sales level out as pent-up demand, originating from both pandemic-induced supply issues and the looming recession, is fulfilled.
Introduction of New, Inexpensive Mainstream EV Models Fuels Growth
EVs accounted for 5.6% of total U.S. light vehicle sales in 2022, up from 3.3% in 2021. Of those 2022 sales, 20% came from luxury brand EVs, a new high since EV sales began over a decade ago. Starting in 2023, AutoPacific predicts an increase in mainstream EV market share with the introduction and sales growth of new, inexpensive mainstream models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Tesla’s promised sub-$30,000 entry EV.
“These new, inexpensive mainstream models will help grow EV sales beyond the affluent early adopters of today to the mainstream consumers that will ultimately be critical for widespread adoption of EVs,” says Kim.
Economic Headwinds Remain Unknown
While vehicle sales growth is expected in 2023 and a few years beyond, all indications are that the United States continues to face the threat of a recession. AutoPacific expects this potential recession to be relatively mild; however, the severity and its impact on this year’s auto sales remains a wild card.
Since 2005, AutoPacific has conducted a bi-monthly online survey designed to measure the impact of fuel prices on consumers’ vehicle purchase decisions and driving behavior. The Fuel Price Impact Study (FPIS) puts years of trend data to work to understand how consumers react to fluctuating fuel prices and how the impact has changed over time.
Consumers are Often Reluctant to Change Vehicle Type
Historically, AutoPacific’s data have shown vehicle owners to be very tied to their current vehicle type. Whether a luxury brand owner or a mainstream brand owner, next vehicle intentions often mirror the current vehicle, or at least remain in the same macro category (car, truck, SUV, minivan).
“Lifestyle and family dynamics dictate vehicle segment, and for many, that means they’re locked into a specific vehicle type for 5-10 years,” says AutoPacific president and chief analyst, Ed Kim.
Independent of fuel prices, AutoPacific’s Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS) asks respondents what type of vehicle they intend to purchase next. While current luxury brand car owners are slightly more committed to their current segment, more than 70% of all current owners intend to stay within the same macro segment, with the exception of Mainstream Large SUV/XSUV 2-row owners, who may be more likely than other SUV/XSUV owners to migrate to a car or truck next time.
Whether a luxury brand owner or a mainstream brand owner, next vehicle intentions often mirror the current vehicle, or at least remain in the same macro category.
What happens when fuel price is added to the mix?
When asked about the impact of fuel prices on their next vehicle type and powertrain intentions in AutoPacific’s bi-monthly FPIS, only 24% of current luxury brand owners and 21% of current mainstream brand owners say higher fuel prices would change their next vehicle type. The catch? Fuel prices must increase approximately $1.25/gallon from where they are now for that to happen. Respondents are more likely to change powertrain type, but at a higher fuel price than for vehicle type. Current luxury brand owners say it would take a fuel price of $5.96 per gallon (median) for them to change powertrain type – a $1.86/gallon increase over the price they’re currently paying. Numbers are similar for current mainstream brand owners, who would change powertrains at a price $2.05/gallon higher than what they’re currently paying.
Respondents are more likely to change powertrain type, but at a higher fuel price than for vehicle type.
“Right now, a relative lack of alternative powertrain choices within vehicle segments means that it’s often easier for a consumer concerned with fuel economy to stick with a gasoline engine and migrate to a more efficient vehicle type,” says Kim. “The ease of transition and comfort level with a different powertrain technology remains a challenge for the auto industry that only time can rectify.”
