Since 2005, AutoPacific has conducted a bi-monthly online survey designed to measure the impact of fuel prices on consumers’ vehicle purchase decisions and driving behavior. The Fuel Price Impact Study (FPIS) puts years of trend data to work to understand how consumers react to fluctuating fuel prices and how the impact has changed over time.

Consumers are Often Reluctant to Change Vehicle Type

Historically, AutoPacific’s data have shown vehicle owners to be very tied to their current vehicle type. Whether a luxury brand owner or a mainstream brand owner, next vehicle intentions often mirror the current vehicle, or at least remain in the same macro category (car, truck, SUV, minivan).

“Lifestyle and family dynamics dictate vehicle segment, and for many, that means they’re locked into a specific vehicle type for 5-10 years,” says AutoPacific president and chief analyst, Ed Kim.

Independent of fuel prices, AutoPacific’s Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS) asks respondents what type of vehicle they intend to purchase next. While current luxury brand car owners are slightly more committed to their current segment, more than 70% of all current owners intend to stay within the same macro segment, with the exception of Mainstream Large SUV/XSUV 2-row owners, who may be more likely than other SUV/XSUV owners to migrate to a car or truck next time.

Whether a luxury brand owner or a mainstream brand owner, next vehicle intentions often mirror the current vehicle, or at least remain in the same macro category.

What happens when fuel price is added to the mix?

When asked about the impact of fuel prices on their next vehicle type and powertrain intentions in AutoPacific’s bi-monthly FPIS, only 24% of current luxury brand owners and 21% of current mainstream brand owners say higher fuel prices would change their next vehicle type. The catch? Fuel prices must increase approximately $1.25/gallon from where they are now for that to happen. Respondents are more likely to change powertrain type, but at a higher fuel price than for vehicle type. Current luxury brand owners say it would take a fuel price of $5.96 per gallon (median) for them to change powertrain type – a $1.86/gallon increase over the price they’re currently paying. Numbers are similar for current mainstream brand owners, who would change powertrains at a price $2.05/gallon higher than what they’re currently paying.

Respondents are more likely to change powertrain type, but at a higher fuel price than for vehicle type.

“Right now, a relative lack of alternative powertrain choices within vehicle segments means that it’s often easier for a consumer concerned with fuel economy to stick with a gasoline engine and migrate to a more efficient vehicle type,” says Kim. “The ease of transition and comfort level with a different powertrain technology remains a challenge for the auto industry that only time can rectify.”