Using AutoPacific’s Data and Insights to Plan for Success in the Emerging Electric Three-Row SUV and Crossover Market

Source: Rivian

Even as the U.S. vehicle marketplace faces the threatening possibilities of steep tariffs on imported vehicles and the elimination of helpful federal tax credits, automakers will continue to expand their EV offerings. In order to remain competitive, there’s a key segment strongly desired amongst many consumers wanting to go all-in on electrification: three-row crossovers and SUVs. Data from AutoPacific’s 2024 Future Vehicle Planner, which surveyed over 14,000 consumers who intend to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years, revealed nearly half of all future three-row SUV/XSUV shoppers would consider purchasing one that’s specifically an EV and another 8% actually intend to do so – a high percentage considering the limited options currently available.

Electric Three-Row SUV/XSUV Segment Expected to Grow

With automakers spreading their mix of EVs across multiple segments, expect more three-row SUV/XSUV models in the coming years. AutoPacific’s North American Competitive Battleground, a continuously updated online service that tracks future product intel, shows significant growth in the number of three-row electric offerings in the coming years. As of December, consumers can pick from only seven electric three-row SUV/XSUV nameplates: the Volvo EX90, VinFast VF9, Tesla Model X, Rivian R1S, Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV and EQB SUV, and Kia’s EV9. Customer deliveries for a handful of other upcoming models, like Cadillac’s Escalade IQ, are also expected to commence by the end of 2024. Starting next year and beyond, more battery-powered three-row SUV/XSUVs are slated to arrive, both from mainstream and premium makes. 

Consumer data and insights from AutoPacific’s Future Vehicle Planner show that 59% of electric three-row SUV/XSUV intenders and considerers want to spend less than $50,000, indicating there are affordability barriers that need to be overcome as well as a need for more non-luxury electric three-row products. At the moment, the Kia EV9 and Mercedes-Benz EQB are the least expensive electric three-row SUVs/XSUVs with starting MSRPs starting in the $55,000 range. Clearly, the data indicate there is room in the market for more affordable three-row electric offerings.

According to AutoPacific’s most recent forecast of U.S. light vehicle sales, fully-electric SUVs/XSUVs are expected to more than double in total light vehicle market share from 2024 to 2029, from 5.8% in expected this year to over 13% in 2029, while three-row fully-electric SUV/XSUVs specifically are forecast to nearly quadruple from well under 100,000 sales in 2024 to around 400,000 sales in 2029. “All-electric three-row SUVs and crossovers are set to become one of the most important growth segments in the EV space,” says Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst at AutoPacific. “There is a perfect storm of life stage needs and EV acceptance that will power consumer interest and sales in this rapidly emerging space.”

Who is the Electric Three-Row SUV/XSUV Buyer and What do they Want?

Data from AutoPacific’s Future Vehicle Planner reveals Millennials are the most likely generation to want to go fully electric, and they are also very likely in their family-raising years. The typical consumer who would consider buying an electric three-row SUV/XSUV is a married female Millennial parent living in a single-family home in the suburbs and driving less than 30 miles per day. More than half of all shoppers and considerers believe they can have home charging equipment installed relatively easy and cost effectively, while a quarter are aware of possible required extensive, expensive electrical upgrades.

Consumers interested in an electric three-row SUV/XSUV are eager for the most modern technology available (including ADAS) and more than half are willing to pay more for an environmentally-friendly vehicle, but not necessarily willing to make trade-offs for that ownership. These buyers are fans of long road trips and shuttle children around, but also rely on their vehicle for commuting. While the brand of vehicle may not be as important of a factor amongst these particular shoppers at time of purchase, the mix of desired features does matter.

Following a similar trend for other vehicle segments and powertrains, intenders and considerers of electric three-row SUV/XSUVs are interested the most in features that bring added comfort and convenience. More than half want wireless charging pads for front and rear passengers, followed by other comfort and conveniences like heated and ventilated/cooled front seats, a household 110v outlet, an integrated air compressor, and a refrigerated center console. Other helpful must-haves like a hands-free power liftgate, second-row captain’s chairs, and power-folding rear seats (both 2nd and 3rd row) are also desired by more than a third of these shoppers. Even 30% are interested in swiveling second-row captain’s chairs, a feature recently showcased on Hyundai’s new 2026 IONIQ 9 that will be offered globally but not for the U.S. market.

There is also strong demand for features and technology that are exclusively for EVs, primarily features that increase convenience, charging speed, and range. “Just like we’ve seen with the current crop of gas and hybridized three-row SUV/XSUVs, the competition is fiery fierce and this notion of brand loyalty isn’t as relevant when cross-shopping,” says Robby DeGraff, Manager of Product and Consumer Insights, “Oftentimes it really does come down to which vehicle has the hottest features and tech a consumer can get their hands on right now.” While EVs, regardless of bodystyle or seat count, can entice consumers with striking new innovative features, AutoPacific data shows it’s imperative they still be loaded with popular, common must-haves found on ICE vehicles that these new consumers may be exiting.

About AutoPacific

AutoPacific is a future-oriented automotive marketing research and product consulting firm providing clients with industry intelligence and sales forecasting. The firm, founded in 1986, also conducts extensive proprietary and syndicated research and consulting for auto manufacturers, distributors, marketers, and suppliers worldwide, including its highly recognized Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS), a part of the larger Future Vehicle Planner. The company is headquartered in Long Beach, California with affiliate offices in Michigan, Wisconsin, and the Carolinas. Additional information can be found at http://www.autopacific.com. 

Deborah Grieb

Director, Marketing & Consumer Insights
AutoPacific
deborah.grieb@autopacific.com

Younger Americans Most Open to Chinese-Brand Vehicles; Willing to Overlook Privacy Concerns

There are currently no Chinese vehicle brands for sale in the U.S., but what if there were? In a recent survey issued by AutoPacific, nearly half of respondents said they are familiar with Chinese vehicle brands and about 35% of respondents said they would consider (definitely or maybe) purchasing a new vehicle from a Chinese brand. The results are part of AutoPacific’s bi-monthly Fuel Price Impact Survey, issued to a proprietary panel of vehicle owners in the U.S. The survey yielded responses from nearly 800 respondents aged 18-80 who were asked a unique set of questions about Chinese-brand vehicles and privacy concerns. However, that overall purchase consideration doesn’t tell the whole story. When broken down by age, 76% of respondents under 40 said they would consider buying a vehicle from a Chinese brand. Consideration then declines significantly by age group with only about 26% of those 60 and older willing to consider one. “A surprising number of American consumers are familiar with Chinese car brands even though none are sold here currently. This is especially true among savvy Millennials and Gen Z, who would be the most likely to consider acquiring a vehicle from a Chinese brand” said Ed Kim, President and Chief Analyst at AutoPacific.

Concerns About Privacy are High Regardless of Age Range

Overall, 44% of respondents said they would be very concerned about their privacy if Chinese-brand vehicles were sold in the U.S., and another 34% would be somewhat concerned. Even younger respondents, those under age 40, have concerns about privacy, with 73% saying they would be concerned about their privacy. However, despite strong concern among the under 40 age group, purchase consideration remains high. “Privacy concerns about Chinese-brand vehicles are likely to eventually subside given that most of the connected smartphones, smart watches, laptops, connected home devices we are comfortable using every day are in fact manufactured in China,” explained Kim.

Respondents of all ages were similarly concerned about potential national security risks if Chinese automakers were to sell their vehicles in the U.S. (68% to 82% depending on age group), and regardless of manufacturing location of the Chinese-branded vehicle: China, U.S., or other countries including Mexico.   

The Biggest Game-Changer for Consideration is Vehicles Built on this Side of the Globe

North American vehicle assembly is becoming more of an imperative “must” among automakers with EVs in order to meet eligibility requirements for mainstream vehicle shoppers to take advantage of federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases. Could U.S. assembly of Chinese-brand vehicles also be a way to bolster consumer consideration? 16% of all respondents and 39% of those under age 40 said that knowing a Chinese-brand vehicle was built in the U.S. would increase their purchase consideration. Even 12% of respondents aged 60 and older, the least likely to consider a Chinese-brand vehicle, stated they’d be more open to one.

Heading south, a handful of Chinese automakers are already selling and will soon build lower-cost vehicles in Mexico for the Mexico market. Under current USMCA free trade rules, such vehicles could potentially be eligible for the full tax credit if they are sold in the U.S., as well as avoid the just-announced 100% tariff announced by the Biden Administration on Chinese-built vehicles.

When gauging consideration for a Chinese-brand vehicle if it were assembled in Mexico and then sold here in the U.S., about 37% overall would definitely or maybe consider a Chinese-brand vehicle made in Mexico, with that jumping to 73% among those under 40. Only about 29% of those 60 or older would consider a Chinese-brand vehicle built in Mexico.

EVs from Chinese Brands Could Solve Many of the Roadblocks Holding Up U.S. Buyers

It’s no secret Chinese brands are building some of the most innovative new EVs with striking technology, cutting-edge software, hyper-fast charging speeds, and fun features desired by younger buyers, and doing so at price points that significantly undercut what EVs from American, Japanese, Korean, and European brands currently sell for in the U.S. market. AutoPacific research has shown a main reason many Americans are hesitant towards EVs is purchase price, and Chinese-brand EVs could potentially offer appealing EV products that could generate excitement for EVs at much more affordable price points.

Despite the punishing new 100% tariff on Chinese-built automobiles, it is likely only a matter of time before they arrive on these shores – just as Japanese automakers did decades ago despite efforts to limit their presence here. “Younger generations of shoppers are clearly aware of the enticing products Chinese automakers are cooking up overseas,” said Robby DeGraff, AutoPacific’s Manager of Product and Consumer Insights. “It’s only a matter of “when” they’ll be able to get their hands on them.”

About AutoPacific

AutoPacific is a future-oriented automotive marketing research and product consulting firm providing clients with industry intelligence and sales forecasting. The firm, founded in 1986, also conducts extensive proprietary and syndicated research and consulting for auto manufacturers, distributors, marketers, and suppliers worldwide, including its highly recognized Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS). The company is headquartered in Long Beach, California with affiliate offices in Michigan, Wisconsin, and the Carolinas. Additional information can be found at http://www.autopacific.com. 

Contact(s): Ed Kim, Deborah Grieb

Consumer Demand for In-Vehicle Marketplace Capabilities is Growing

With automakers prioritizing connectivity and exploring new ways to generate revenue after the point of sale, consumers are becoming more interested in the ability to purchase items or services directly from a vehicle’s center infotainment screen. This feature isn’t necessarily “new.” Over the past decade, automakers have tried testing the waters with in-vehicle marketplaces but to the reception of little actual interest among consumers. However, recent breakthroughs in screen sizes and intuitive software with over-the-air updates, and a booming e-commerce scene have prompted automakers to give this feature another go. AutoPacific research has seen demand for the ability to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen grow by 8% pts YoY. We predict that figure to continue to rise.

18% of all new vehicle intenders, and 29% of EV intenders want to use their touchscreen for transactions

When surveying new vehicle intenders, 18% of those who plan to buy a new vehicle within the next three years want the ability to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen. Past research has shown younger consumers are generally more comfortable and open to connected technology in their vehicles, as well as electrification. That’s expectedly the case here, with demand peaking among those ages 30-49 before dropping sharply.

Befitting, intenders of EVs who likely anticipate spending time waiting for their vehicle to charge, want this feature the most and considerably more so than ICE intenders (+16% pts). Automakers with EVs in their lineup could benefit by providing consumers in-vehicle marketplace capabilities, since these EV intenders frequently use a vehicle’s center infotainment screen for certain activities while parked, including streaming video content, playing games, partaking in video conferencing, and browsing the internet.

Regardless of powertrain or segment, this feature could become a must-have among families, as demand was more than twice that of households without any children. From placing food orders while waiting in the school pickup line to purchasing heated rear seats while on a winter road trip, obtaining products and services conveniently through the center infotainment screen can be a reprieve for busy parents. Relevant products, services, and upgrades catered specifically to families’ needs should be readily available via an in-vehicle marketplace.

Enhancing the vehicle and ownership experience over time

Beyond common goods and services, certain features and technologies that weren’t initially offered or added to a vehicle at time of purchase can be downloaded later through an in-vehicle marketplace. These can include ADAS features, comfort amenities, and even performance-focused treats like quicker acceleration and extra range for EVs. “This opens the door for manufacturers to let an owner easily enhance and better their vehicle over time,” says Robby DeGraff, Manager of Product and Consumer Insights at AutoPacific. “Maybe you didn’t think you’d need a hands-free highway driving assist when you first drove your vehicle off the lot…but now you suddenly do because you’re road-tripping a lot. A few minutes and taps on the center touchscreen, and you’ve just upgraded your vehicle without ever stepping foot in a dealership.”

Concerns and considerations to ensure seamless transactions

Earlier attempts at in-vehicle marketplaces were flawed by complicated on-screen steps, lagging connections and syncing of an owner’s payment methods, as well as a relatively small number of participating vendors. In order to ensure best practice for a consumer to purchase products, technologies, and vehicle upgrades directly from a center infotainment screen, the process must be as quick, easy, and straightforward as it would be to do so using a mobile device. Any interruption, glitches, or difficulty during an on-screen transaction would likely see the consumer immediately resorting to completing the transaction on their smartphone.

Furthermore, privacy may be a real concern for some consumers, even those open to having connected technology in their vehicle. 66% of all respondents, and 70% of those who want the ability to securely purchase products, technologies and upgrades from their vehicle’s center infotainment screen say they are concerned about their privacy due to use of various technologies. Transparency, a way to opt out of a transaction if desired, and of course security for all stored payment methods need to be guaranteed by the automaker.

Charging Stations Hold a Key to Mass EV Acceptance in the U.S.

An extension of AutoPacific’s renowned Future Attribute Demand Study (FADS), the EV Consumer Insights Study is comprised of licensed drivers aged 18 and older who reside in the United States and plan to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years. Their EV ownership, acceptance and rejection are gathered from a series of questions regarding their current vehicle and future purchase plans. “We’re excited about this study because it really digs into EV acceptance and rejection, yet also provides extremely useful insights that can help to build the reliable and enjoyable public charging infrastructure necessary for the future of EVs,” explains AutoPacific director of marketing and consumer insights Deborah Grieb.

42% of future EV considerers and intenders have concerns about finding safe and reliable charging on-the-go.

42% of future EV considerers and intenders have concerns about finding safe and reliable charging on-the-go.

Confidence in Public EV Charging Station Reliability and Safety Required

The study reveals that over 42% of consumers who plan to acquire, or will consider acquiring, an EV in the near future have concerns about finding reliable and safe charging on-the-go. Additionally, 41% of EV rejectors, those who will not consider acquiring an EV in the near future, say a lack of public charging infrastructure in their area is a reason for not considering going electric, ranking 3rd in rejection reasons behind the high cost of battery repair or replacement (49%) and concern about losing charge and being stranded (48%). Current EV owners, who are likely familiar with public charging station needs, mimic the concerns though at a lesser rate than non-owners with 30% naming finding reliable and safe on-the-go charging as concerns for EV ownership. “We’ve long said that the deployment of widespread and reliable public EV charging is at least as important as the EV products themselves and the data from our new EV Consumer Insights Study conclusively demonstrate this,” says AutoPacific's president and chief analyst, Ed Kim. “EVs have so many potential advantages, but ultimately they are irrelevant to consumers if they don’t have a way to quickly, safely, and reliably charge them while on the go.”

DC Fast Chargers Necessary for Widespread EV Implementation

According to the Department of Energy, there were close to 30,000 public DC fast charging stations in the United States at the beginning of 2023, and many more will be available in the next few years. However, AutoPacific notes that with the bulk of these chargers being in EV-friendly states like California, many parts of the U.S. are and will remain charging “deserts” for years to come, hampering EV adoption in those areas as well as discouraging long-distance travel in EVs. When asked about their concerns regarding EV ownership, 48% of future EV considerers and intenders and 36% of rejectors say they're concerned about charging times. “Couple concerns over finding a charging station with concerns over charging time and it's obvious that aggressive nationwide deployment of DC fast chargers is going to be instrumental in growing and maintaining EV ownership,” says Grieb.

Nearly 1/2 of future EV considerers and intenders, and 26% of owners are concerned about the amount of time it takes to charge an EV

Nearly 1/2 of future EV considerers and intenders, and 26% of owners are concerned about the amount of time it takes to charge an EV

It should be noted that the median time expected to charge a nearly empty battery to 80% using a DC fast charger is similar across the studied subgroups: 32 minutes from experienced owners and EV rejectors and 35 minutes from future considerers and intenders.

It remains to be seen if the auto industry’s recent moves to improve the state of public charging, most notably the adoption of the North American Charging Standard, as well as the newly formed automotive OEM consortium to promote more DC fast charger deployment, will sufficiently appease consumers’ concerns.

Human Error vs Intelligent Technology: New Vehicle Intenders Want Tech to Help Avoid Careless Mistakes

A multitude of features and technologies exist, or will soon exist, to assist drivers at various levels of intervention. With new vehicle penetration levels increasing, are consumers finally embracing these advanced safety systems and which ones are most appealing?

71% of new vehicle intenders say their next new vehicle should “have technology that prevents careless mistakes,” according to AutoPacific’s latest Future Attribute Demand Study. The study includes responses from over 11,000 licensed drivers in the U.S. who plan to acquire a new vehicle within the next three years. Does this mean they’re ready for autonomy? Not quite. While nearly half of these respondents want Unresponsive Driver Stop Assist, a feature classified as autonomous in the study, other autonomous driving features aren’t quite as welcomed, with full autonomy with option to drive desired by 30%. Mistake-avoiding technology seekers are more likely to be interested in technologies they perceive to improve safety and visibility.

Advanced Safety Technology Placement

While gender doesn’t play a differentiating role in who and where to target for placement of these technologies, age and lifestage apply, with technology seekers more likely to be Gen Y (+14%pts) with 1 or 2 children in the household (+10%pts). Additionally, these consumers are more likely to intend a luxury brand vehicle and have a stronger interest in alternative powertrains, from hybrid to electric. AutoPacific notes that the trend has been, and will likely continue to be, that tech seekers also want alternative powertrain vehicles, making them ideal candidates for introducing new “mistake avoiding” technologies.

AutoPacific Insights: Using AutoPacific’s syndicated data for real-world applications

Contact: Deborah Grieb, deborah.grieb@autopacific.com