Can anyone but Tesla survive until consumer demand for EVs increases?
In follow-up to last week’s AutoPacific Insights, which looked at consumer demand for EVs and sales per nameplate, we take a closer look at what’s left after Tesla takes the lion’s share of sales.
Source: AutoPacific Q120 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Tesla currently holds 77% of the BEV market with 3 nameplates. AutoPacific’s 2025 forecast has Tesla holding 40% of an increased market with 5 nameplates. More for everyone else, right? Sort of.
Of the 85 nameplates that make up the 2025 BEV market, only 13 of them are forecast for volumes greater than 10k units, not including Tesla. Remove those 13 from the equation, and you’re left with 32% of the market to split between 67 nameplates. Simple math tells us that’s 3,600 units per nameplate.
Source: AutoPacific Q120 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Tesla is by far the leader in BEV sales, and is expected to remain the leader for years to come. Look for new entries from several automakers, including Rivian, Ford, Volkswagen and Chevrolet, to sell greater than 10,000 units.